In another sign of labour market softening in Alberta, the job vacancy rate* has fallen for the 11th quarter in a row.

After reaching a high of 4.9% in the second quarter of 2022, the rate has come down by two percentage points to land at 2.9% as of the first quarter of this year.

The rate averaged 2.7% between 2015** and 2019 before ratcheting up in 2021 and 2022 as the disruptive impact of the pandemic and subsequent recovery worked their way through the economy.

In absolute terms, the number of vacancies has fallen from over 100K in 2022 to under 62K today.

It is essentially the same story for Canada as a whole, with the national vacancy rate also falling for 11 quarters in a row to 2.9%, albeit from a slightly higher peak of 5.6%.

An interesting development is that Alberta’s job vacancy rate has now converged with the national average after spending over seven years below it from 2016 to mid-2023.  Unlike the rest of Canada, the vacancy rate still remains higher than pre-COVID levels in Alberta.

Regionally within Alberta, the west side of the province (Banff-Jasper-Rocky Mountain House and Athabasca-Grande Prairie-Peace River) has the highest vacancy rate in the first quarter at 3.7% (down from a high of 7.8%) and the Red Deer region the lowest at 2.4% (down from a high of 5.0%).

While the overall vacancy rate has moderated, it is higher in some sectors than others. Two sectors continue to stand out in this regard: specialty construction trade contractors and food services and drinking places.

With tariffs and ongoing trade war uncertainty dampening economic growth, we expect the labour market both nationally and provincially to continue to remain soft this year.

*All data in today’s Twenty-Four have been adjusted for seasonality. The job vacancy rate is the number of vacant positions expressed as a percentage of labour demand (occupied positions and vacant positions).

**The data series available from Statistics Canada begins in the first quarter of 2015.

Answer to the previous trivia question: Russia was expelled from the G8 in 2014 for its annexation of Crimea.

Today’s trivia question: For what international event was the Pomeroy Kananaskis Mountain Lodge built?